Mozambique’s Lusa media service says violent incidents involving Islamic extremists in northern Mozambique saw a significant decrease of 71% in 2023, according to a report by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS) released on Wednesday. The commendable reduction in violence has been linked to the successful military actions taken by forces from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and Rwanda.
In the past year, the ACSS noted 127 violent events leading to 260 fatalities in northern Mozambique. Despite this, a concerning number of displaced persons, approximating 850,000, remain unable to return to their homes, underscoring the ongoing impact of the conflict on local populations.
The tactical operations of SADC and Rwandan military units, starting in July 2021, have been integral in dislodging the extremists from key towns such as Palma and Mocimboa da Praia. These efforts have resulted in regaining control over 90% of the regions once held by the militants, specifically the Ahlu Sunnah wa Jama’a (ASWJ)—also known as al Shabaab. Remnants of these groups now operate in smaller, more dispersed factions within rural areas of Macomia District.
In 2023, crimes against civilians notably decreased by 80%, with civilian deaths amounting to 23% of the total casualties— 61 civilian deaths due to 53 attacks. This contrasts sharply with the previous year’s 286 attacks and 438 civilian deaths, highlighting a positive trend in protecting non-combatants.
Going forward, the ACSS raises the question of sustainability regarding these security improvements and stresses the importance of addressing underlying issues contributing to instability in the region, such as those in Cabo Delgado.
On a broader African context, there remains an overall increase in fatalities linked to Islamic extremist violence on the continent—an alarming 20% rise in 2023, totaling 23,322 deaths compared to 19,412 in the previous year—nearly double the death toll in 2021.
Focusing on specific areas, the Sahel, with 11,643 deaths, and Somalia, with 7,643 deaths, have become the primary stages of such violence, accounting for 83% of the continent’s Islamist-related fatalities in 2023. The Sahel alone represents half of the deaths associated with Islamic militants this year.
The numbers reveal a disturbing growth of extremist violence in these regions which, according to the ACSS, may have even been underreported due to a significant reduction in media presence since the coups in countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger between 2020 and 2023.
Most notably, the coalition Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM)—comprising groups like the Front de libération du Macina and Ansaroul Islam—has been linked to an increase in deaths by 67%, accounting for 9,195 fatalities in 2023. In contrast, fatalities tied to the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (EIGS) saw a slight reduction.
In Somalia, al Shabaab stands as the principal perpetrator of extremist aggression, with the majority of occurrences emanating from confrontations between government forces and the Islamist coalition. This strife exacerbates the humanitarian crisis, with 4.3 million individuals facing serious food security challenges due to conflict, drought, and flooding.
